Baltic container shipping has seen fundamental structural changes in the last decade. Its long-term future looks equally interesting with Maersk among an expanding group of container lines exploring the Arctic route, plus growing overland links to China . This inherently brings both risks and opportunities to regional stakeholders.
At ClipperMaritime, we aim to track shipping activity to its most granular level while contextualizing this within macro economic and deep-sea shipping trends in order to provide our clients with best in class data-driven decision making tools regardless of their size or internal analytical clout.
This report sets out a high level summary of our Baltic analysis, covering the following four broad areas:
Containerised trade summary
Recent trends in container volumes in the Baltic region, with benchmark growth factors for quick comparison
Macro overview of the region
Details of Baltic macroeconomic indicators and how they can be interpreted as explanatory variables in containerised trade
Key ports and regional hubs
AIS-driven data round port call frequencies, sizes of vessels, and owners / operator breakdowns at a specific port. Given its current profile, we have focused this aspect on the port of Gdansk. All data presented in this report is available on an ongoing basis through our interactive dashboard tool: get in touch with one of our team to explore further.
Total 2017 containerised trade in the Baltic states has grown by 5.56% compared to the same period in the prior year. This is comparable to the 5.96% growth realised across the rest of Europe. To better understand long term volume trends, we assessed growth factor metrics for the Baltic ports and benchmarked them against the rest of Europe. Year on year and overall trends are generally representative of each other, with Baltic traffic lagging slightly behind that of the rest of Europe.
GDP throughout the Baltic region grew by 17% in the 10 years from 2007 to 2017 was 17%.
This overall figure is driven by its largest economies, Poland and Sweden, growing by 33% and 17% respectively.
TEU has grown strongly in relation to GDP: over the same time period the region has grown at a ratio of 2.03 : 1.
This includes periods of significant flux: with Poland’s containerised trade bouncing back quickly from the GFC (65% YoY growth in 2010 vs 2009), as well as low volumes dragging many multipliers in to negative zones
Baltic Activity Tracker
We have developed a methodology, built around AIS technology, which captures all container vessel movements in relational databases. These update in real-time to enable the most up to the minute analyses to be carried out.
Utilising this data, we have summarised vessel activity throughout the Baltic ports. Values displayed show vessel capacity throughput (sum of vessel TEU capacity * port call volumes) across the region since the beginning of 2018. Gdansk and St Petersburg are quickly identified from the map (circle size denotes TEU throughput) as two of the major regional hubs,
further contextualised in the accompanying bar chart beneath.
As alluded to on the previous slide, our AIS-led dataset enables us to drill
down in to significantly more layers than are available elsewhere.
Focusing on Gdansk as the most pertinent port in the region, we show